LONDON — Brexit is so divisive there might be only one way to get it sorted — call the queen!
No, not to send politicians to the Tower of London, but to resolve a potential standoff with Prime Minister Boris Johnson.
Dominic Cummings, the most senior official in Johnson’s new-look Downing Street, has reportedly told aides that his boss — who is determined to deliver Brexit by October 31 — would be prepared to defy a vote of no confidence from the House of Commons (should one be called and should it succeed when MPs return to work in September). Johnson would refuse to resign and instead hang on long enough to use his power to set the date of the next election — after Brexit day, according to a Times report Tuesday.
That has led to speculation that Queen Elizabeth II, the 93-year-old head of state, may have to play a part in the Brexit process.
If Johnson won’t go, the queen could in theory dismiss him, according to David Howarth, professor of law and public policy at the University of Cambridge and a former Liberal Democrat MP. It would be the first time a monarch has taken such a step since 1834, although it is highly unlikely, according to Howarth and other historians and constitutional experts.
Johnson’s government currently has a majority of one, and there is a band of Conservative rebels determined to stop him taking the U.K. out of the EU without a deal.
However, if Johnson lost a vote of confidence, refused to go, and another group in parliament was able to command a majority in the House of Commons — for, say, delaying Brexit and holding a general election — then the queen would have to invite the leader of said faction to form a government. If Johnson still refused to go, then the U.K. would be, in the words of one parliamentary expert, in “full-blown constitutional crisis” territory.
Such a scenario, while hypothetical for now, would place the queen at the uncomfortable center of one of the greatest political dramas to unfold in her 67-year reign.
The queen’s horror
Events after any confidence vote would play out under terms set down in U.K. law, in the Fixed Terms Parliament Act of 2011.
Under that law, if a government loses a confidence vote in the House of Commons, there are 14 days in which an alternative government must win a fresh confidence vote, or else a general election has to be called.
Britain’s Queen Elizabeth II welcomes newly elected leader of the Conservative Party, Boris Johnson during an audience in Buckingham Palace, London on July 24, 2019 | Victoria Jones/AFP via Getty Images
Johnson’s government currently has a majority of one, and there is a band of Conservative rebels determined to stop him taking the U.K. out of the EU without a deal. With negotiations on a new deal seemingly dead in the water, such a dramatic situation is being war-gamed by Downing Street.
However, as Cummings has pointed out, the law says that it is the prime minister who must advise the queen when to hold the election. If no alternative government can be formed in the 14 allotted days, Johnson could suggest a date after October 31 and the queen would be obliged to set it.
It all adds up to a situation the monarch would much rather avoid, according to Robert Lacey, a royal historian and historical consultant on Netflix series “The Crown.”
“The queen has a horror of being dragged into politics, partly because it is in her very nature to be neutral and retiring, and also because she deeply believes that the constitutional monarchy should do all it can to remain above the fray,” Lacey told POLITICO.
“Therefore, in the event of the 14-day rule becoming applicable, I think she is highly likely to follow the 14 days and stick by that rule, because that is the rule and there is no other law telling her what she should or could do otherwise. If some other conflicting rule or precedent can be produced — or if the 14-day limit is exceeded — then she and her advisers might see things differently.
“Her Majesty has an experienced and very highly qualified team of legal and constitutional advisers to guide her on such matters,” Lacey added. “So this question should not be seen in terms of the queen making a personal decision — beyond the fact that her personal inclination is not to take risks, and also to follow the advice she develops with her team.”
A nightmare scenario for Buckingham Palace would be that a new would-be government wins the confidence of parliament, but Johnson still refuses to go.
Prime minister who?
If Johnson does lose a confidence vote, the person who would, in ordinary circumstances, try to form a new government would be opposition Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, who would be the one to call the vote in the first place.
However, it would be deeply uncomfortable for Tory rebels to back Corbyn, even if he was prepared to be only a caretaker prime minister, in power long enough to request an Article 50 extension from the EU and to call a general election.
Some MPs speculate that a unity candidate would instead be sought, with the names of Conservative veteran Ken Clarke and Labour Brexit committee chairman Hilary Benn being floated. But it would be very difficult to find such a figure who could command sufficient support from rival factions in parliament — hence Cummings’ confidence.
Vernon Bogdanor, a constitutional expert and research professor at King’s College London, said the golden rule is that the queen is bound by the advice of her prime minister. “But, if he loses a vote of no confidence, the prime minister has lost the authority to offer advice,” he said.
“There are then two alternatives — either a general election or an alternative government which can win a vote of no confidence within 14 days. The Fixed Term Parliament Act is ambiguous, but it appears that there are a number of possibilities. The first is that Boris Johnson is able himself to form an alternative government able to gain the confidence of the Commons. The second — very unlikely — is that Jeremy Corbyn, as leader of the opposition … can do so.
“The third — almost as unlikely — is that a ‘Government of National Unity’ under some other named individual can be formed. For the queen to ask that named individual to form a government would require … cast-iron evidence in the form of a written agreement by a majority of MPs that they would support that individual.”
A protester wears a mask of the queen at a rally organised by the pro-European People’s Vote campaign for a second EU referendum in Parliament Square, central London on March 23, 2019 | Isabel Infantes/AFP via Getty Images
A nightmare scenario for Buckingham Palace would be that a new would-be government wins the confidence of parliament, but Johnson still refuses to go.
Then, in the words of one expert on the constitution and parliamentary procedure, who spoke on condition of anonymity, the U.K. would be in “full-blown constitutional crisis … as it potentially drags the queen in.”
In this scenario, the queen and her advisers might indeed be forced to weigh up whether to dismiss a prime minister for the first time in nearly 200 years. But this would be an extreme path for Johnson to take and his political enemies don’t believe he will force the matter.
Dominic Grieve, the Conservative MP and former attorney general who has been at the forefront of parliamentary efforts to block a no-deal Brexit, told POLITICO: “The people who are suggesting that Boris Johnson can cling on to office in the 14 days of a no-confidence motion, if there is in practice an alternative administration capable of being formed that commands the confidence of the House of Commons, are deluding themselves.”
Her Majesty will be hoping that he is right.
Emilio Casalicchio contributed reporting.
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